March 2026
The labor market world is abuzz with expectations of reacceleration. The last two Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job reports were good ones, and some wonks (as well as jobseekers!) are hoping that they’re the down payment for a year of good news about jobs. If you’re looking for new work in today’s tough job market, we’re crossing our fingers for you.
But Homebase’s data suggests that this is a case of hope running before data. Two measures of labor market strength, hiring and turnover, ran slightly below year-ago levels in February. Nothing catastrophic is going on; it’s just the same gradual cooling we’ve seen in the last few years. For us to be sure that the labor market is really warming again, we’d need to see this type of churn — people jumping in and out of jobs — rising again.
Another dimension in which we’re seeing labor market cooling is wage growth. Year-over-year wage growth was 5.9% in February — the lowest it’s been in the last few years, and quite a bit below where it was in February 2025 (8.3%). Wage growth has cooled across all sectors that we individually track; it remains the fastest in retail (5.7% Y/Y) and the slowest in professional services (3.0%).
We wouldn’t throw in the towel on 2026 quite yet. Even a small improvement in demand for workers could lead the downward drift in these indicators to stop and maybe even go the other way. But after 2025, which started with similar high hopes and ended with mild disappointment, it’s a good idea to wait until the data confirms it.
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Remember: This is not legal advice. If you have questions about your particular situation, please consult a lawyer, CPA, or other appropriate professional advisor or agency.
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